Forex Trading Signal 03/06/07
1. March 6th, 2007 (9:00 am New York Time) CANADA
We have interest rate statement coming out of Canada. It is unanimously expected to be left unchanged at 4.25%. If for some reason there is a hike to 4.50% or more, it would probably be good for the Canadian dollar, and USD/CAD may go down by 100 pips or more. If there is a cut to 4.0% or lower, it would probably be bad for the Canadian dollar, and USD/CAD may go up by 100 pips or more. In my opinion, there is 99.99% change that they’ll keep the rates unchanged. However, what may move the market are comments from Bank of Canada that accompany the rate decision. If the comments are hinting towards high inflation and future rate hikes, USD/CAD may possibly decrease by 30 to 50 pips or more, since it would be bullish for Canadian dollar. If the comments are hinting towards slow inflation, and a possibility of a rate cut, USD/CAD may possibly increase by 30 to 50 pips or more.
2. March 6th, 2007 (5:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then we have interest rate statement coming out of Australia. Before few economists were thinking of a possibility of a hike this month, but right now it’s unanimously expected that Australia will probably keep the rates unchanged at 6.25%. If for some reason there is a hike to 6.50%, AUD/USD may possibly increase by 100 pips or more. If for some reason there is a cut to 6.00%, AUD/USD may possibly decrease by 100 pips or more. Again, there is almost no chance of rate change, and I don’t believe that there are going to be any comments, accompanying the statement. Just in case, if there are comments, same as with Canada, if they are hinting towards strong economy and possibility of future rate hikes, AUD/USD may possibly increase by 30 pips or more. If they are hinting towards slow down and a possibility of rate cuts, AUD/USD may possibly decrease by 30 pips or more.
3. March 6th, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then we have GDP coming out of Australia. That’s probably the report of the day, and has the biggest chance of giving a trade. This is a quarterly report, and only comes out 4 times per year. We have this report for the 4th quarter of 2006 for Australia. The consensus for this are all over the place, mostly staying and varying from 0.3% to around 0.8%. If the report comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would probably be good for Australian dollar, and AUD/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more. If the report comes out at 0% or negative, it would probably be bad for the Australian dollar, and AUD/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more. This report tends to create a very sudden spike, and usually start consolidating right after.Â
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