AUDUSD Looking To Fall Further

After the expected decline of a quarter-point rate of Australia allowing the Aussie to fall back on time, graphical configuration calls for a continued rise while the Fed has just revised its growth forecasts and that the Greek Prime Minister waives the proposed referendum.

For the first time since 2009 and after a standstill a year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eased monetary policy by returning its key rate to a level of 4.50%. The slowdown in inflation justifies the transition from a strategy of “mildly restrictive” policy to “neutral.” The institution also points to slowing growth in China representing 20% ​​of exports, the fiscal situation in Europe, the decline in commodity prices and the strong Australian dollar.

If the ad allows the currency of the island-continent to breathe, the fundamentals argue for a continuation of the rally began in early October. With an unemployment rate of 5.2% and 1.2% growth in the second quarter despite the natural disasters that have affected the country and part of the mining industry earlier this year the fourteenth world economy shows figures as Europe or the U.S. envy.

Faced with a labor market that is struggling to raise, the U.S. central bank is also reviewing its growth forecasts downwards for 2012, between 2.5 and 2.9%, against a range of 3.3 to 3.7% in June, giving credibility to the hypothesis of new monetary easing measures, which would weigh on the greenback.

Finally, the AUD, backed by risk appetite, should also benefit from the cancellation of the referendum Greek, by Mr. Papandreou conceded under pressure from the couple Sarkozy / Merkel, determined to implement the European aid plan decided on 27 October.

Graphically, after peaking at 1.0750 USD and the announcement of the RBA, the Aussie oscillates in contact with its 20 days moving average, the uptrend remains intact on all horizons. The latter offers retracement and good timing to initiate new long positions with a primary objective to 1.0713 USD.