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Month: July, 2009

Choosing a Forex Signal Provider - Examining Draw Downs

31 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: ThomasKearns

When you’re looking for a third party signal provider, one of the first things that you need to look at is their maximum draw down. This is the maximum amount lost between an extreme peak and an extreme valley. This number also includes open positions but does not take into account margin required to keep you out of a margin call. Inevitably the question comes: How much draw down is too much? The answer is like many trading questions. It depends. There are a lot of factors that come into play when answering this question. Obviously a person with a 50k account could tolerate more draw down than a person with a 5k account. Another person with a 1k account could withstand even less. So aside from your account size, what else do we have to think about?

Another thing to look at aside from the actual number is how that number came to be. If a trader has a draw down that is too high for you to tolerate but otherwise seems to trade well, you should look at how many positions he opens at a time. If that trader opens 5 trades on any given pair at a time you can instantly cut their historical draw down by 5. Limiting the # of open trades for a trader could drastically reduce the overall draw down.

Sometimes you will find a trader who has a great track record aside from one major meltdown where a single trade ran out of control for days unchecked. This will produce an abnormal draw down in relation to the traders real ability. He may be the kind of guy who can’t recognize when a trade has no chance of coming back to even. He may also be a guy who lost his internet connection at an inopportune time once or twice. Either way you can keep this trader from doing this to your account by setting your own stops for him. Just make sure that you only stop out his trades that are well out of a realistic trading range.

Now that we’re half way down the page lets revisit our original question. After doing anything and everything you can to limit draw down, I would say that anything over 35% of your entire account equity is just too much. Once you start to get into a situation where you are losing 50% or more it is very tough to ever recover without taking extreme risks. If you lose 50% you need to make 100% just to get back to even.

When considering draw down you should also look at how much history is available on that trader. If he only has 3 weeks of history than chances are that his largest draw down is yet to come. If he has 50 or 100 weeks of history he has probably already hit some rough patches and you can get a better idea of how rough the rough patches are for that particular trader.

Also remember to constantly monitor your traders on both a live and demo account. If their draw down gets out of hand it may be time to reevaluate or completely remove that trader from your portfolio.

To learn more about 3rd party signal providers visit Automated Forex Trading Systems.

Why Every Forex Trader Should Know About Rollover Orders

31 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: tcmforex

One aspect of forex trading that can sometimes confuse new traders is that of rollover orders, and it is important to fully understand this concept if you are going to be holding open positions for longer than one day at a time. Typically most forex brokers will process their rollovers on any open positions at 5PM New York time, which will effectively be rolled over to the next trading day.

The market that most retail traders will be paricipating in is called the spot or forward market, and although you are placing trades based upon the prices that you are seeing on the screen in front of you, the actual process of buying and selling currencies on the spot market calls for the actual currency that is being bought or sold to be delivered in two days. In the same way that an oil trader has no interest in receiving raw barrels of oil delivered to his front door, a currency trader has no interest in taking physical delivery of the foreign currency he or she is trading.

In order to prevent the trader from ever needing to accept delivery of the currency, every evening as the markets close in New York any open positions will be rolled over to the next trading day, which effectively allows a trader to keep a buy or sell order open indefinitely. Depending on the interest rates of each currency, there will be a small amount of money that is either added to or taken away from the open position. It is the difference between the two interest rates that determines whether you will receive money or need to pay money at the time the rollover is processed.

Let’s say you are using typical 100:1 leverage and are trading one standard lot, and you have bought USD/JPY. In this example let us assume that the current interest rate for the USD is 1.75% and the interest rate for the JPY is 0.50%. In this trade we have bought dollars and sold yen, and the difference between the two interest rates is 1.25%. Since the dollar has the higher interest rate and we have bought dollars, at the time the rollover is processed, and since the interest rate is the amount that is earned over the course of one year, the amount of money that is added to the open position will be (1.25/365)*100,000.

In that example we take the differential of the two interest rates as a factor of the direction of the open position, divide that number by the number of days in a year which is 365, and then multiply that number by the size of the open position which is 100,000 to figure out how much is added to our open position.

Nathan Navachi is a professional trader who built http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com to introduce the world to forex trading.

Go to http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com/forex4.htm right now to discover the exciting world of forex.

Forex Trend Trading With A Simple Moving Average

31 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: tcmforex

While many new forex trading systems are based on complicated mathematical market analysis models, some of the most effective forex trading strategies are also the simplest. One of these simple and highly effective strategies is trend trading, where you simply see which direction the market is trending in and then you trade in that direction. If you were trading the EUR/USD currency pair, the way that you could identify the direction of the trend is to open up a daily chart and overlay a simple moving average on the chart. If the direction of the moving average is up, then the pair is in an uptrend; if the moving average line is down, there is a downtrend; and if the line is horizontal then there may be no trend.

Trend trading is a proven way to earn profits in the forex market since it is an established fact backed by decades of market research that currency pairs (and indeed literally all markets) move in trends. If the trend is up then it makes sense to buy, if the trend is down then it makes sense to sell, and if there is no trend then it may not be a good time to trade. The best way to get an accurate sense of the overall trend is to look at a long-term price chart such as a daily, weekly, or monthly chart and see which direction the moving average line is pointing. While it may not be practical to use a monthly chart for trading signals, it can let you see in a quick glance where the market has been and where it will be headed if the trend continues.

It is a general rule of interpretting trading signals that the longer the period of the price chart is, the more reliable the trading signal will be. This strategy of determining the trend and then trading in that direction could be used on a chart as small as a one minute candlestick chart or as large as a daily or even weekly chart if you are really a long-term trader. Now while trading signals from long-term charts can be more reliable, there is also larger risk involved with keeping a trading position open for days or weeks at a time. If you plan to trade on these types of longer time frames, be sure to factor in the amount of leverage you are using as a function of how many pips you are willing to risk on a loss.

On the short-term side, this strategy can be used on a 1-minute or 5-minute chart but the signals may not be as reliable and the trend itself may be erratic and rapidly changing. It is common sense that the steepness of the moving average line indicates how quickly the market is moving up or down, and if you can identify a fast moving trend on this type of price chart then you open yourself up to large gains if you can enter in on the right side of the market and ride the trend for as many pips as possible before the market retraces itself.

Nathan Navachi is a professional trader who built http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com to introduce the world to forex trading.

Go to http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com/forex3.htm right now to discover the exciting world of forex.

Inflation and Interest Rates For Forex Traders

31 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: tcmforex

Understanding the relationship between inflation and interest rates for a particular currency can help you decide whether or not that currency is growing stonger or weaker, and whether you should be buying or selling that currency. Inflation tends to be a constant factor in today’s monetary system, and typically inflation is an indication of economic strength and an expanding economy.

As employment levels and wages rise, people have more money to spend and prices will tend to rise as a result of the increase in the money supply. This is the basic cause of inflation, and while inflation levels that are kept in check can lead to sustainable economic growth, unchecked inflation levels can spell economic disaster as the economy can literally collapse under its own weight leaving hard-working citizens with money that has had its value and buying power eroded. Understandably, the Federal Reserve and all other central banks will monitor inflation levels very closely, and one of the best ways to combat inflation levels is by raising interest rates.

When interest rates are low, you may not be earning as much money on your savings but it is much easier to borrow money for a house, car, business, or any other type of credit. It is this ease of access to new money that can contribute to the cycle of inflation. However there can come a time when inflation levels are rising too far too fast, and instead of creating economic growth in a sustainable fashion it can lead to an out of control economy in overdrive that can lead to something that Alan Greenspan called “confiscation by inflation,” meaning that the value of each person’s money is eroded by the large increases in the overall money supply.

Raising interest rates will keep inflation in check by tightening the credit markets and making more difficult to gain access to new money, thereby shinking the growth of the monetary supply and making harder to gain access to loans. The relationship between interest rates and inflation levels is an important one to understand if you are a forex trader, because keeping tabs on these simple metrics can help you determine where the overall trend of the currency is and whether you should be buying or selling. A lower interest rate will mean that your money does not grow as quickly as a factor of time, but it can also mean that the country is experiencing economic growth as loans and credit are more easily available, which means the value of a currency can increase in the foreign exchange markets despite the higher inflation levels.

However, inflation does not always indicate economic growth. There have been historical instances of inflation coupled with increasing unemployment and decreasing wages, and this type of economic condition is called stagflation. Stagflation can be crippling to a country’s economy and is a central bank’s worst nightmare in terms of figuring out how to solve this problem. Back in the 1970s when the United States first abandoned the Gold Standard under President Nixon, there was rampant stagflation that had to be countermanded with extremely high interest rates that went as high as 20%. This is an example of what can happen when inflation levels are left to run wild, and it can leave you with more money but far less buying power.

Nathan Navachi is a professional trader who built http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com to introduce the world to forex trading.

Go to http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com/forex2.htm right now to discover the exciting world of forex.

Five Essential Pillars Of Forex Risk Management

30 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: tcmforex

Although it is only natural for most traders to focus on the potential profits that they are hoping to see in their trading account, it is also important to pay attention to any potential losses or risks that might take a bite out of your profits. Risk management is probably the most important attribute of a fully formulated trading plan that can be profitable in any market conditions, and it is the risks that traders do not know about or think about that can sometimes be the most devastating. There are five main components of a good risk management plan, and each one of these five plays an important role in allowing a trader to earn profits and keep them without giving them back to the market.

Pillar 1: Limit Orders and Market Entry

Figuring out the right time to enter into the market can be difficult in a live trading environment, and one of the tools that can be used to find the right time and price to open a new trading position is a limit order. With a limit order you can set a specific price level, and if the market touches this level then it will open up a buy or sell order accordingly for that currency pair. This is better than trading the immediate prices you see on the screen because you can set your limit order just outside of a range trading zone or an established support or resistance level, and it can be a price where if the market ever reaches this level than it is highly probable that it will continue moving in that direction.

Pillar 2: Market Volatility

Volatility is important to take into account because any extreme price movements or whipsaws can have the effect of triggering your limit order prematurely and then retracing in the wrong direction, or once you are in the market any volatile movements can trigger your stop loss orders prematurely. A good way to anticipate market volatility is to look at an economic calendar and see if any significant announcements are to be made that day for the two currencies in the pair that you are trading. While this obviously cannot take into account any unanticipated breaking news stories for the day that might affect the markets, it can still give you a sense of whether or not to anticipate large rapid movements for the day.

Pillar 3: Market Liquidity

Despite the fact that the foreign exchange market is the largest and most liquid market in the world, it is still possible to get trapped in the market without being able to close your open position. If you are trading with a market maker forex broker that guarantees constant liquidity then this is not as big of a factor as when you are trading with an ECN broker or when you are trading on the true interbank market.

Pillar 4: Stop Loss Orders or Cutting Your Losses

One of the hardest things to do as a trader is to humble yourself and cut your losses before you lose any more money. For this we have the ability to set stop loss orders, and you must use logic and reason when deciding at which level to set your stop order at. If you set your stop order too short then you may need to exit the market prematurely when it was actually going to continue in the right direction, and if you set it too far away then you may lose too much money by not exiting out of a losing position quickly enough.

Pillar 5: Profit Targets and Market Exit

Setting your profit targets is maybe the most important component of your risk management strategy, because you need to exit the market with as many pips as possible without giving any back. If you are trading only one lot at a time then setting your profit target can be pretty straightforward as you can simply use a fibonacci retracement level or you can set your target above or below an established support or resistance level. However if you are trading multiple lots, you may want to use a cascading exit order strategy where you exit out of the market with one lot at a time in sequence until your entire position is liquidated.

Nathan Navachi is a professional trader who built http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com to introduce the world to forex trading.

Go to http://TheCurrencyMarkets.com/forex5.htm right now to discover the exciting world of forex.

Study And Learn With Forex Trading Courses

29 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: LanceThorington

If you haven’t heard about Forex, briefly, it’s where people trade money on the open market. They’ll trade one national’s currency for another hoping to make a profit. Many people invest in the Forex market, but before they do they often take Forex trading courses in order to understand exactly how it all works.

It’s very easy to lose any investment you have in the Forex market. In fact, most people jump in before they know enough about it and lose their investment. This is why Forex trading courses are becoming very popular. There are those that go very in depth and will cost you money, and there are those that are beginning tutorials that you may find for free.

There’s plenty to learn about the Forex market, and each one of the tutorials may offer you different knowledge. It’s vital that before you invest large sums of money that you do learn about the Forex market as well as Forex trading platforms that allow you to play with the different currencies, and learn how they work.

Often, one of the first things you’re going to learn through these courses is to play with demonstration or play money accounts before investing money. In fact, some of them will recommend that you play for several months, then actually double the money in the play money account before you even invest your own. Those traders who are successful, often double their money several times before investing.

Without the basics on Forex trading you’re not even going to begin to understand all of the charts and tools that are involved in your platform. Each Forex trading company offers a trading platform, each one of them are a bit different, and each one of them may offer you different types of tools. If you don’t understand the tools, you can’t take advantage of them, and won’t understand the rise and fall or liquidity of the market.

There are many different courses available, try taking a few of the free ones before you begin to pay for others. Most of the free trading courses are going to offer you a few basics, and then you’ll understand exactly what type of trading course you need to pay for, and get more out of it if you have the basics down first.

You’ll also want to understand a bit about the history of the Forex trading market. Each of the currencies actually have their own history as well. By studying the past, you can understand the future and why a currency pair fluctuates regularly, or stays steady.

There’s plenty to learn before you begin putting money into the foreign currency exchange market. Make sure that you study a few of the free tutorials or trading courses in order to get the basics down, and then don’t be afraid to pay for Forex trading courses. Many of the ones that cost money are going to go in depth into how to trade, the tools you can use to predict the market, as well as the history of the individual currencies.

Want to join the league of high rollers and fast players? Get a head-start with forex trading courses, now a click away at http://allforexshop.com/3

Trade Forex Online: The Difference Between Forex Trading and the Stock Market

29 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: deepower

There are a number of differences between trading currencies and trading on the stock market. Here are a few.

Volatility is much less with Forex.
An individual stock can increase or decrease in value tremendously during a one day period. The stock market itself can climb 100 points and then spiral downward in a two day period. Currencies change much more slowly. On a day by day basis, volatility of the major currencies is less than 1%. Profits are made on fractions of a percentage point in change in value

Buy in pairs: sell one currency and buy another one in the same transaction.
Forex trading is done by selling one currency to buy another currency in the same transaction at the same time. Stocks are sold one stock at a time. Each transaction is independent and has no effect on the other if more than one stock is bought and sold at the same time.

Buying on margin
Trading on the margin or leveraged trading, as it is also called, means that you are not required to deposit, or put up, the full value of the trade or position. When trading stocks you can usually only buy 50% of the value of the stock on margin. The remainder has to be deposited in your brokerage account. The brokerage house charges interest on the balance. Trading through a Forex trading platform on the margin means only a small percentage of the lot has to be deposited and there is no interest charged. In fact up to 200 times the value of your account can be leveraged. In either case the buying and selling on margin can substantially increase profits and losses.

There is no centralized exchange system for forex trading. It’s all OTC, over the counter. The transactions between the seller and buyer is conducted by telephone or via an electronic network. There are websites that provide the required network. Forex Trading can take place through accounts set up through the networks. Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets.

24 hours a day from Sunday through Friday
Stock markets open in the morning and close every evening. Not so with forex. The trading begins on Sunday 5:00 PM ET and continues until Friday 5:00PM ET. FX begins in Sydney as the business day starts then continues around the world as each market opens. Tokyo is first, then London, and New York. Forex traders don’t have to wait for a market to ‘open’ to respond to currency fluctuations. They can react to changes caused by economic, political or social events in real time as they happen.

More Forex Trading Tips Dee Power is the author of several nonfiction books and the novel “Over Time,” about the Green Bay Packer Football find out more about her at How to get a book published

Forex Trading Factors That Influence Trading

28 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: deepower

If the current government’s deficit increases, its currency’s value will fall. As the government decreases its deficit, the currency can begin to recover value and the exchange rate will become more favorable. The same relationship holds true with a country’s trade deficit. If the country imports more goods and services than it exports it will have a negative influence on the currency.

Inflation lessens the ability of a unit of currency to buy less and less, so the currency loses value. If the inflation becomes rampant the currency is valued less because it’s also viewed as unstable. As the rate of inflation begins to decline the currency begins to increase in value.

Politics and social changes can play havoc with the currency exchange rates. Changes in the regime that are viewed negatively can lower the value of the country’s currency in the short term and continue into the long term. If the present government makes decisions that are looked at negatively it can decrease the currency value as well. The opposite can happen. Current government officials can make policy changes that are viewed positively by the rest of the world and that can increase the value of the currency.

For the United States, interest rates and the price of oil can have a major impact on the value of the US dollar.

Interest rates effect how much it’s going to cost to borrow money and how much can be earned on investments. Historically if the US raises its interest rates it attracts foreign investors. Those investors have to sell their own currency in order to buy U.S. dollars to purchase treasury bonds. If the interest begins to drop, or the perception is that the rates won’t rise any more, investors may purchase Euros as an alternative investment which lowers the value of the US dollar.

The United States is dependent on foreign oil production. Many US industries are dependent on oil and an increase in the price of oil means an increase in their expenses and a drop in profits. In a similar way, a country’s dependency on oil influences how the country’s currency is valued and will be impacted by changes in oil prices. The US’s dependency on oil makes the dollar more sensitive to oil prices than countries who aren’t so dependent. As the price of oil increases the value of the dollar drops.

More Forex Trading Tips Dee Power is the author of several nonfiction books and the novel “Over Time,” about the Green Bay Packer Football find out more about her at How to get a book published

Forex Mentors - The Best Investment You Can Make?

28 July, 2009 | Uncategorized | By: jamesw

Some of the most successful forex traders will often attribute their success to finding a good forex mentor right at the start of their forex trading career. Indeed many of these people would not have become successful if they had been left to their own devices. So should you yourself consider paying to be trained by a forex mentor?

Well in my opinion this is one of the best investments you can possibly make. Forex trading is no different to any other profession in that if you want to become good at what you do, ie becoming a profitable trader in this case, then you need to pay for a decent education.

You can learn all about forex trading by visiting the various websites devoted to this subject, you can read a book or two, or you can pay for a forex training course, for example. However although many of these resources are great in theory, one thing many of them won’t do is to teach you a profitable trading method, which is where forex mentors come in.

A good mentor will not only teach you the basics but providing you are paying them for their services, they will generally share with you their highly profitable trading system as well. So even if you have to pay a few thousand dollars for this coaching, this initial outlay could potentially pay for itself many times over if you are actually given a good system, which of course you can use for the rest of your life.

The key to success is to spend lots of time finding someone who can mentor you. If you look online you will find lots of people, particularly on blogs, forums and chatrooms, who claim to be doing very well but you really want a highly successful trader who’s trading full-time and genuinely making consistent profits. These people are quite rare and don’t generally tend to waste their time in forums or chatrooms, for instance, but they can be discovered if you do your research.

The next step is to approach them and give them a proposition. You should remember that their time is very valuable so you certainly shouldn’t expect free mentoring, but a good offer may just be enough be tempt them into giving up some of their spare time.

As I’ve already said this investment could be the most important one you make because they will provide you with a complete education in forex trading. They will teach you all about money management, discipline and self-control, which are important attributes that you will need if you want to become a successful trader, and best of all they will share with you their profitable trading system(s) which has the potential to earn you a lot of money in the long run.

So the point is that you should definitely consider hiring a forex mentor if you want to become a highly profitable forex trader.

Click here for more information about a forex course that will teach you all the basics of forex trading, and to read a full review of Forex Nitty Gritty.

Automated Forex Trading Systems

28 July, 2009 | Currency Trading | By: websaver

Using an automated trading system is very efficient since Forex trade is very fast, based on different political, economic and social factors. Since exchange is open 24 hours a day, monitoring is very important. This makes automated Forex trading systems valuable in the Forex trade.

An automated trading system can constantly monitor the Forex market. It can also be programmed to set trades and buy or sell, it can stop losses even if the trader is not present.

There are two types of the automated Forex trading system. They are the desktop and web based systems. What are they and how they operate? Lets find out.

Desktop based system

A desktop based system, of course, would require you to use your computer. Internet connection is not necessarily needed to keep it working, though. All Forex data and charts are saved in the hard drive of your computer. It is necessary for traders using this kind of system to have back-up files. This system is not that popular or preferred among traders. Why?

This kind of system is constantly under security or virus threat. Any kind of this occurrence could trigger your software to lose data, which is why having a back-up is a must. Data and charts could be ruined and cannot be recovered. Other people can also have access to your personal and trading data.

To prevent things like these to happen in your desktop-based system, there are methods that can be done. If you have spare budget, then you can have a computer exclusively just for Forex trading. If you cannot afford it, then you can still do additional safety precautions to safeguard your computer and software.

You can regularly update you back-up file. Make sure to have a password both for your personal and trading data. Having your trading software password protected is also a good idea. Have you anti-virus and trading software updated regularly to make sure that they have the most recent virus and security protection.

Web/ Internet based system

With the web-based system, there would no need to install additional software in your computer to take advantage of the automated Forex trading system. Your Forex account would be taken care of a web-based provider. The server also handles the storing of your data, the provider is also responsible in security and maintenance. For maximum protection, your data is encrypted and at the same time the provider has a back-up copy in case your data is lost.

A good thing about this is that it allows the trader flexibility. An internet-based system allows the trader to do trade anywhere. Although, there are some who say that it is necessary to have a high-speed internet connection to maximize the gains and effectiveness of the system.

Just like anything else, both systems have its advantages and disadvantages. You just have to make sure that the one that you would be using would be suitable for your needs. Aside from that your technical capability and Forex trading style would be factors on choosing the automated Forex trading system you would be using.

David Botley - Webmaster

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